China and Taiwan

Read the two documents attached. Then taking into account the histories, cultures, and economies of China and Taiwan, propose paths to peace between the close neighbors. As an afterthought suggest how the U.S. might help. Then translate your report into Chinese.

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Paths to Peace Between China and Taiwan: An Inventive Negotiation Approach

Executive Summary

Based on the principles outlined in the attached documents, particularly the concepts that "trade causes peace" and "inventive negotiation," this report proposes comprehensive pathways toward sustainable peace between China and Taiwan. Rather than viewing this as a zero-sum territorial dispute, we reconceptualize it as an opportunity for unprecedented economic and cultural collaboration that could benefit all parties involved.

Core Principles

1. Trade as the Foundation for Peace

The relationship between trade and peace has been empirically demonstrated - countries seek to protect wealth gained through international trade, making trading partners less combative than non-trading nations. The China-Taiwan relationship already demonstrates this principle in action, with more than 500,000 managers and engineers living in the Shanghai area from Taiwan, making war in that neighborhood simply impractical.

2. Moving Beyond Zero-Sum Thinking

The current impasse reflects traditional competitive bargaining - both sides arguing over sovereignty positions. An inventive negotiation approach would shift focus from "who controls Taiwan" to "what opportunities exist for mutual prosperity and innovation?"

Proposed Paths to Peace

Path 1: The "Greater China Innovation Zone"

Concept: Establish a special administrative framework recognizing Taiwan's unique status while creating unprecedented economic integration.

Key Elements :

• Technology Collaboration Hub: Leverage Taiwan's semiconductor expertise (TSMC) and China's massive manufacturing capacity and market to create the world's leading technology development zone
• Joint Intellectual Property Framework: Similar to the Philips MyHeart consortium approach described in the inventive negotiation document, create shared IP agreements that benefit both sides
• Cross-Strait Innovation Centers: Physical facilities in Beijing, Shanghai, Taipei, and Kaohsiung where engineers and entrepreneurs from both sides collaborate on next-generation technologies
• Revenue Sharing Model: Profits from joint ventures distributed according to contribution, not political control

Cultural Precedent: China is already experiencing monumental change through trade and international exchange, with Chinese students learning English and absorbing values of egalitarianism and individualism. Taiwan can accelerate this positive evolution.

Path 2: The "Two Systems, One Market" Framework

Concept: Reverse the traditional formulation - instead of "one country, two systems," propose "two systems, one integrated market."

Key Elements :

• Complete Economic Integration: Remove all trade barriers, harmonize regulations where beneficial, but maintain political autonomy
• Free Movement Zone: Allow citizens from both sides to live, work, and invest freely across the strait
• Joint Infrastructure Projects: High-speed rail connections, shared ports, integrated supply chains
• Cultural Exchange Programs: Massive expansion of student exchanges, sister city programs, and collaborative cultural initiatives

Economic Incentive: Taiwan's GDP per capita is approximately three times that of mainland China. Integration without political subordination could raise living standards for all Chinese people, creating a powerful constituency for peace.

Path 3: The "East Asian Prosperity Alliance"

Concept : Embed the China-Taiwan relationship within a broader regional framework.

Key Elements :

• Include Regional Partners: Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN nations as stakeholders in Cross-Strait stability
• Regional Innovation Network: Building on both documents' emphasis on diversity in innovation, create Northeast Asian collaboration on climate technology, healthcare, and advanced manufacturing
• Shared Governance Mechanisms: Regional bodies that give Taiwan international participation without requiring formal statehood recognition
• Economic Interdependence by Design: Structure supply chains so that conflict becomes economically irrational for all parties

Historical Model: The European Union was founded on the notion that the best way to keep the French and Germans from fighting was to integrate their economies.

Implementation Strategy: Learning from Inventive Negotiation

Phase 1: Relationship Building (Years 1-3)

Facilitate Third-Party Mediation :

• Engage professional facilitators experienced in consensus building, similar to those used in complex energy projects
• Potential facilitators: Singapore (trusted by both sides), Norway (neutral with peace-building expertise), or Switzerland
• Professional facilitators tend to both shorten negotiation times and yield more durable agreements

Expand People-to-People Contacts :

• Increase student exchanges to 500,000 annually
• Create joint research universities
• Establish artist and entrepreneur residency programs
• Sports and cultural festivals alternating between mainland and Taiwan

Small Wins Strategy :

• Begin with uncontroversial collaborations: pandemic preparedness, natural disaster response, environmental protection
• Build trust through successful joint projects before addressing political issues

Phase 2: Economic Integration (Years 3-7)

Progressive Barrier Reduction :

• Year 3-4: Eliminate all tariffs and trade restrictions
• Year 4-5: Harmonize product standards and certifications
• Year 5-6: Integrate financial markets and payment systems
• Year 6-7: Complete freedom of movement for workers and businesses

Joint Investment Fund :

• $100 billion fund for cross-strait infrastructure and innovation
• Governance shared equally regardless of contribution size
• Focus on projects requiring collaboration: semiconductor research, AI development, green energy

Special Economic Zones :

• Create "innovation zones" in coastal cities where experimental policies can be tested
• Allow these zones to operate under hybrid legal frameworks

Phase 3: Political Framework (Years 7-10)

Only After Trust is Established :

• Political discussions should follow, not precede, economic integration
• By this point, interdependence makes conflict irrational
• Trading partners are less combative than non-trading nations

Creative Political Solutions :

• "Associated State" status giving Taiwan external autonomy, internal governance, but shared defense
• UN observer status through creative membership arrangements
• Shared sovereignty over disputed territories in South China Sea
• Joint representation in certain international bodies

Constitutional Innovation :

• Learn from European Union's complex sovereignty arrangements
• Create new categories that satisfy both sides' core interests: Taiwan's democracy and autonomy, China's territorial integrity

Addressing Obstacles

Managing Emotions and Nationalism

When anger is threatening or intimidating, it is likely to end inventiveness not only at that meeting but also in personal relationships. Both sides must:

• Acknowledge historical grievances without being imprisoned by them
• Frame discussions around future opportunities, not past conflicts
• Use "complaint sessions" productively to identify real concerns
• Take breaks when discussions become too heated

Overcoming Power Dynamics

The most important idea about the role of power in negotiation is "best alternative to a negotiated agreement" or BATNA. Current reality:

• China's BATNA: Military force (catastrophic for all)
• Taiwan's BATNA: Status quo with US protection (increasingly unstable)
• Better alternative: Create a future so prosperous that both sides' BATNAs become irrelevant

Key Insight: Stop thinking about power and start thinking about partnership. The question isn't "who wins?" but "what can we build together?"

Preventing Corruption and Building Trust

• Transparency in all joint ventures and agreements
• Third-party auditing and monitoring
• Rotational leadership in joint institutions
• Strong anti-corruption mechanisms with teeth

The Role of the United States

What the US Should Do:

1. Support, Don't Dictate

• Facilitate dialogue rather than taking sides
• Provide technical assistance for negotiation processes
• Avoid inflammatory rhetoric that boxes in either side

2. Economic Incentives

• Offer preferential trade terms for joint China-Taiwan ventures
• Support technology collaboration that includes US firms
• Provide financing for cross-strait infrastructure through multilateral development banks

3. Security Guarantees Reimagined

• Transition from military deterrence to "peace insurance"
• Offer security guarantees for a negotiated settlement
• Gradually reduce military presence as economic integration makes conflict irrational

4. Multilateral Framework

• Work through regional organizations (APEC, East Asia Summit)
• Include Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN in peace-building process
• Create economic incentives for regional stability

5. Track II Diplomacy

• Support academic exchanges and think tank collaboration
• Fund cultural exchange programs
• Facilitate business-to-business relationships

What the US Should Avoid:

1. Zero-Sum Framing

• Stop forcing countries to "choose sides"
• Recognize that China-Taiwan peace serves US interests
• Avoid policies that increase tensions to serve narrow defense industry interests

2. Weaponizing Trade

• Trade sanctions should never have been used - trade does not work as a stick, only as a carrot
• Technology export controls should be narrowly targeted, not broad-based
• Economic decoupling increases war risk

3. Underestimating Economic Forces

• All this interaction among peoples makes war unthinkable. Trade makes war simply impractical
• Market forces are more powerful than military forces in the long run
• Trust economic interdependence to create peace constituencies

Economic Analysis: The Peace Dividend

Current Costs of Tension:

• Taiwan: ~2.4% of GDP on defense (approximately $13 billion annually)
• China: Unknown but substantial military spending focused on Taiwan contingency
• Regional: Reduced trade and investment due to uncertainty
• Global: Supply chain vulnerability (semiconductors)

Potential Peace Benefits:

For Taiwan :

• Access to China's 1.4 billion consumer market without political constraints
• Reduced defense spending freed for innovation and social programs
• Guaranteed security enabling long-term planning
• Enhanced international status through regional integration

For China :

• Acquisition of world-leading technology and management expertise
• Peaceful resolution enhancing international reputation
• Reduced defense costs from Taiwan contingency
• Accelerated innovation through collaboration

For the Region :

• Stable supply chains (especially semiconductors)
• Reduced military spending regionwide
• Enhanced trade and investment flows
• Model for other territorial disputes

Conservative Estimate: Peace dividend of $100-200 billion annually across the region within a decade.

Conclusion: From Confrontation to Collaboration

The China-Taiwan situation represents a choice between two futures:

Path A - Traditional Approach :

• Continued military tension
• Risk of catastrophic conflict
• Economic costs of division
• Zero-sum competition

Path B - Inventive Negotiation :

• Economic integration creating shared prosperity
• Political creativity satisfying both sides' core interests
• Regional stability enabling broader cooperation
• Model for 21st century conflict resolution

Peace isn't enough. Peace cannot be the goal. The goal must be prosperity, and peace is a step in that direction.

The opportunities are extraordinary:

• Combined GDP of $20+ trillion
• Population of 1.4 billion
• World's most dynamic economic region
• Technology leadership in semiconductors, AI, manufacturing

The poem can stand some editing for these more modern times, but Kipling's positive sentiment remains: Differences between countries and cultures, no matter how difficult, can be worked out when people talk to each other in face-to-face settings.

The path to peace between China and Taiwan runs through Shanghai factories, Taipei research labs, joint university programs, and millions of personal relationships. It requires imagination, patience, and faith in humanity's fundamental capacity for collaboration.

The choice is clear: Build walls and prepare for tragedy, or build bridges and create prosperity. Trade causes peace. Let the inventive negotiations begin.

AND?

Associated materials

https://hbr.org/2019/11/is-china-actually-stealing-american-jobs-and-wealth

https://www.longinstitute.uci.edu/projects/us-china-2025-barometer.php

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202503/13/WS67d231f9a310c240449da8a9.html

AND? in Chinese  https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5sx9p9zq

AND? in English https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7524j2vk

cultures and countries quantified in Tables 1, 2, and the Appendix of the article at https://escholarship.org/content/qt6vg5q9fz/qt6vg5q9fz.pdf. See the Chinese approaches and the Finally, you can compare the similarities and differences in negotiation behaviors in several American.

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中国与台湾之 间的和平之路：创新谈判方法

执行摘要

基于所附文件中概述的原则，特别是"贸易促进和平"和"创新谈判"的概念，本报告提出了中国与台湾之间实现可持续和平的综合路径。我们不将此视为零和领土争端，而是将其重新定义为前所未有的经济和文化合作机会，可使所有各方受益。

核心原 则

1. 贸易作为和平的基础

贸易与和平之间的关系已得到实证证明——各国寻求保护通过国际贸易获得的财富，使贸易伙伴比非贸易国家更少对抗。中台关系已经证明了这一原则，上海地区有超过50万来自台湾的管理人员和工程师，使该地区的战争变得完全不切实际。

2. 超越零和思 维

当前的僵局反映了传统的竞争性谈判——双方争论主权立场。创新谈判方法将焦点从"谁控制台湾"转移到"存在哪些相互繁荣和创新的机会"。

建 议的和平之路

路径一：" 大中 华创新区"

概念 ：建立承 认台湾独特地位的特别行政框架，同时创造前所未有的经济一体化。

关 键要素 ：

• 技术合作中心：利用台湾的半导体专业知识（台积电）和中国庞大的制造能力和市场，打造世界领先的技术开发区
• 联合知识产权框架：类似于创新谈判文件中描述的飞利浦MyHeart联盟方法，创建使双方受益的共享知识产权协议
• 两岸创新中心：在北京、上海、台北和高雄设立实体设施，双方的工程师和企业家在此合作开发下一代技术
• 收益分享模式：联合企业的利润根据贡献分配，而非政治控制

文化先例 ：中国已 经通过贸易和国际交流经历着巨大变化，中国学生学习英语并吸收平等主义和个人主义价值观。台湾可以加速这种积极演变。

路径二：" 两制一市 场" 框架

概念 ： 颠倒传统表述 —— 不是 " 一国两制 " ，而是提 议 " 两制一体化市 场 " 。

关 键要素 ：

• 完全经济一体化：消除所有贸易壁垒，在有益的情况下协调法规，但保持政治自治
• 自由流动区：允许双方公民在海峡两岸自由生活、工作和投资
• 联合基础设施项目：高速铁路连接、共享港口、综合供应链
• 文化交流计划：大规模扩大学生交流、姐妹城市计划和合作文化倡议

经济激励 ：台湾的人均 GDP 约为中国大陆的三倍。没有政治从属的一体化可以提高所有中国人的生活水平，为和平创造强大的支持群体。

路径三：" 东亚繁荣联盟"

概念 ：将中台关系嵌入更广泛的区域框架。

关 键要素 ：

• 包括区域伙伴：日本、韩国和东盟国家作为两岸稳定的利益相关者
• 区域创新网络：基于两份文件强调的创新多样性，在气候技术、医疗保健和先进制造领域开展东北亚合作
• 共享治理机制：区域机构使台湾能够参与国际事务，而无需正式国家地位承认
• 设计性经济相互依存：构建供应链，使冲突对所有各方在经济上都不合理

历史模式 ：欧盟的建立基于 这样的理念：让法国人和德国人不再打仗的最好方法是整合他们的经济。

实施策略：从创新谈判中学习

第一 阶段：关系建设（第1-3 年）

促 进第三方调解 ：

• 聘请在共识建设方面有经验的专业调解人，类似于复杂能源项目中使用的调解人
• 潜在调解人：新加坡（双方信任）、挪威（中立且具有和平建设专业知识）或瑞士
• 专业调解人往往能缩短谈判时间并产生更持久的协议

扩大人民间接触 ：

• 将学生交流增加到每年50万人
• 创建联合研究型大学
• 建立艺术家和企业家驻地计划
• 在大陆和台湾之间轮流举办体育和文化节

小 胜利策略 ：

• 从无争议的合作开始：流行病防范、自然灾害应对、环境保护
• 在解决政治问题之前，通过成功的联合项目建立信任

第二 阶段：经济一体化（第3-7 年）

渐进式消除壁垒 ：

• 第3-4年：消除所有关税和贸易限制
• 第4-5年：协调产品标准和认证
• 第5-6年：整合金融市场和支付系统
• 第6-7年：工人和企业完全自由流动

联合投资基金 ：

• 1000亿美元用于两岸基础设施和创新
• 无论贡献大小，治理权平等共享
• 专注于需要合作的项目：半导体研究、人工智能开发、绿色能源

特 别 经济区 ：

• 在沿海城市创建"创新区"，可以测试实验性政策
• 允许这些区域在混合法律框架下运作

第三 阶段：政治框架（第7-10 年）

仅在建立信任后 ：

• 政治讨论应在经济一体化之后，而不是之前
• 届时，相互依存使冲突变得不合理
• 贸易伙伴比非贸易国家更少对抗

创造性政治解决方案 ：

• "联系国"地位赋予台湾外部自治权、内部治理权，但共享防务
• 通过创造性成员安排获得联合国观察员地位
• 对南海争议领土实行共同主权
• 在某些国际机构中共同代表

宪法创新 ：

• 学习欧盟复杂的主权安排
• 创建满足双方核心利益的新类别：台湾的民主和自治、中国的领土完整

应对障碍

管理情 绪和民族主义

当愤怒具有威胁性或恐吓性时，它可能不仅会在那次会议上结束创造性，还会在个人关系中结束创造性。双方必须：

• 承认历史不满，但不被其囚禁
• 围绕未来机会而非过去冲突进行讨论
• 有效地利用"抱怨会议"来识别真正的关切
• 在讨论变得过热时休息

克服 权力 动态

关于谈判中权力作用的最重要观点是"谈判协议的最佳替代方案"或BATNA。当前现实：

• 中国的BATNA：军事力量（对所有人都是灾难性的）
• 台湾的BATNA：在美国保护下维持现状（日益不稳定）
• 更好的替代方案：创造一个如此繁荣的未来，使双方的BATNA都变得无关紧要

关 键见解 ：停止思考 权力，开始思考伙伴关系。 问题不是 " 谁赢 " ，而是 " 我 们能一起建设什么 " 。

防止腐 败和建立信任

• 所有合资企业和协议的透明度
• 第三方审计和监督
• 联合机构的轮换领导
• 强有力的反腐败机制

美国的作用

美国 应该做什么：

1. 支持，不要指 挥

• 促进对话而不是站队
• 为谈判过程提供技术援助
• 避免使任何一方陷入困境的煽动性言论

2. 经济激励

• 为中台联合企业提供优惠贸易条件
• 支持包括美国公司在内的技术合作
• 通过多边开发银行为两岸基础设施提供融资

3. 重新构想安全保障

• 从军事威慑转向"和平保险"
• 为谈判解决方案提供安全保障
• 随着经济一体化使冲突变得不合理，逐步减少军事存在

4. 多 边框架

• 通过区域组织（亚太经合组织、东亚峰会）开展工作
• 将日本、韩国和东盟纳入和平建设进程
• 为区域稳定创造经济激励

5. 第二 轨道外交

• 支持学术交流和智库合作
• 资助文化交流计划
• 促进企业间关系

美国 应该避免：

1. 零和框架

• 停止强迫各国"选边站"
• 认识到中台和平符合美国利益
• 避免为服务狭隘的国防工业利益而加剧紧张局势的政策

2. 将 贸易武器化

• 不应该使用贸易制裁——贸易不能作为大棒，只能作为胡萝卜
• 技术出口管制应针对性强，而不是广泛的
• 经济脱钩增加战争风险

3. 低估 经济力量

• 人民之间的所有这些互动使战争变得不可想象。贸易使战争变得完全不切实际
• 从长远来看，市场力量比军事力量更强大
• 相信经济相互依存会创造和平选民

经济分析：和平红利

当前 紧张局势的成本：

• 台湾：国防开支约占GDP的2.4%（每年约130亿美元）
• 中国：未知但相当大的军事开支集中在台湾突发事件上
• 区域：由于不确定性导致贸易和投资减少
• 全球：供应链脆弱性（半导体）

潜在的和平利益：

对台湾 ：

• 无政治限制地进入中国14亿消费者市场
• 减少的国防开支用于创新和社会计划
• 有保障的安全使长期规划成为可能
• 通过区域一体化提高国际地位

对中国 ：

• 获得世界领先的技术和管理专业知识
• 和平解决提高国际声誉
• 减少台湾突发事件的国防成本
• 通过合作加速创新

对该地区 ：

• 稳定的供应链（尤其是半导体）
• 全区域减少军事开支
• 增强贸易和投资流动
• 其他领土争端的典范

保守估 计 ：十年内 该地区每年和平红利 1000-2000 亿美元。

结论：从对抗到合作

中台局势代表了两种未来之间的选择：

路径A - 传统方法 ：

• 持续的军事紧张
• 灾难性冲突的风险
• 分裂的经济成本
• 零和竞争

路径B - 创新谈判 ：

• 经济一体化创造共同繁荣
• 政治创造力满足双方核心利益
• 区域稳定促进更广泛的合作
• 21世纪冲突解决的典范

和平还不够。和平不能成为目标。目标必须是繁荣，和平是朝这个方向迈出的一步。

机会是非凡的：

• 合计GDP超过20万亿美元
• 14亿人口
• 世界上最具活力的经济区
• 在半导体、人工智能、制造业方面的技术领先地位

这首诗可以为这些更现代的时代进行一些编辑，但吉卜林的积极情感仍然存在：国家和文化之间的差异，无论多么困难，都可以通过人们面对面交谈来解决。

中国与台湾之间的和平之路贯穿上海工厂、台北研究实验室、联合大学项目和数百万个人关系。它需要想象力、耐心和对人类基本合作能力的信心。

选择很明确 ：建造 墙壁并为悲剧做准备，或者建造桥梁并创造繁荣。贸易促进和平。让创新谈判开始吧 。

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We also include here supporting articles:

A QUARTER CENTURY OF PEACE AND PROSPERITY

by John Lawrence Graham

“To get an accurate picture of the world, you have to count…

we should follow the trendlines, not the headlines.”

Steven Pinker, 2019

The recent headlines during this silver anniversary year of the world’s most import international marriage – that between the United States and China – might seem frightening to some at the moment. But as Professor Pinker portends, the trendlines tell a different story, indeed, the true, more important story. Both countries have been enriched in so many ways since China was granted Permanent Normal Trade Relations by Congress (PNTR) and membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) at the turn of the century. See the simplest evidence presented in the chart just below.

Free trade between the two countries has delivered both peace and prosperity to the marriage through three mechanisms: interdependence, interaction, and invention. We liked Pulitzer Prize Cartoonish Matt Wuerker’s depiction of the theory of international interdependence and peace so much that we put in on the cover of the 12th edition of our textbook, International Marketing. See his masterpiece just below.

The empirical evidence supporting the notion that interdependence brings peace is ubiquitous. Trade also brings people together from different cultures and countries, and those millions of commercial interactions lead to mutual understanding and long-term personal relationships. Finally, the diversity of international teams yields the invention that has always brought human progress.

Current Conundrums

Despite what you read in the popular press, the United States and China are not one another’s biggest problems. But both governments are spending as if they were.

The biggest problem facing our governments and peoples, now and in the coming decades, is the explosion of elders in our populations. Compare our population “pyramids” below.

You may have noticed that in the United States in recent years our social support systems (both pensions and healthcare) are collapsing under the weight of the growing decrepitude of baby-boomers. Indeed, even Trump is a symptom, not a cause, of this generational malady. Most of the design work for out social safety net was done before 1960 when our population age distribution did look like a pyramid – a broad base of young people with few elders to care for.

Alternatively, the single scariest datum in the charts above is the dearth of births in China. The Chinese pyramid looks quite tippy! The one-child policy of the last century has now given way to successive government support for two- and most recently three-child families. But the previously sibling-less generation is proving uninterested.

Another way to comprehend the current problem here in the States is the unmanageably steep growth in the percentage of senior between 2010 and 2030. These explosive numbers are due not only to the baby-boom generation, but also the recent decline in fertility that America and the world are suffering.

The Political Response

Yet as politicians and despots faced with insoluble domestic problems have always done, our leaders obfuscate and distract using foreign bogeymen. Thus, we see President Xi pining for reunification of China and Taiwan, and President Trump imitating with affections toward Canada. We do find it interesting to note that both those wayward polities share a very similar history: Indigenous peoples conquered by world powers; attacks of competing colonists – Japan in the case of China 1895-1945, and France and Britain in the 1700s; and finally, both achieving independence in the last century.

Making these matters worse is the decades long Republican use of the “Commie” bogeyman. It started with Nixon in his 1946 Congressional campaign, continued with McCarthyism, and, yes, Americans dying in Korea from bullets fired by Chinese Communist rifles. Fear of commies should have subsided with the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War in 1991. But the Republicans drudged it up again with the 1999 Cox Report to Congress on Chinese espionage. The back cover headline said it all, “China’s Target: America.” Fear of foreigners elected George W. Bush in 2000. That false fear masked the real danger of Middle East terrorists on September 11th.

The Nixonian echo continues through the halls of Washington, D.C. The problem is communism is dead. Free enterprise is thriving in places like Ho Chi Minh City and Shanghai. The death of communism is even evident in the chart just below. At one end of the scale zero government spending defines perfect free enterprise, and at the other end, 100 percent government spending defines perfect communism. Over the past two decades, China and the United States have both average about 15 percent. Who’re the commies now?

China’s Virtual Victory?

The bonds among the high-tech triad of the U.S., China, and Taiwan guarantee a lack of the violence that none of the three can afford. See below how the ties have strengthened during the last twenty-five years. Each statistic has at least doubled since 2000. Also, please note that Taiwan’s two biggest trading partners are #1 China and #2 the United States.

And consider the companies involved. Hon Hai Precision (Taiwan) owns Foxconn (China) that assembles the iPhones now in pockets around the world to the tune of over $200 billion in annual sales. Even more complicated is the deep embeddedness of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) AI supercomputer chips, factories, and employees in all three countries. Estimates vary, but some suggest one million managers and engineers from Taiwan have worked in China. Further, see the most recent fruits of international inventor teams that promise even more high-tech progress in both the USA and the PRC. International trade brings together divine diversity that has always pushed the progress of mankind.

The Great Waste of Both Countries

Now consider the military expenditures of both countries shown just below:

The U.S. record $900 billion in 2024 does not include the additional Veterans Administration outlays of over $300 billion per year, that a long-term cost of America’s past military adventurism.  Nor is Donald Trump’s “golden dome” ask for future years. Taiwan spent some $19 billion on defense last year, with almost all weapons delivered by the world’s biggest weapons producer, the United States.

Seeing a Better Future

Finally, imagine a world wherein the independence of Taiwan is not a damaging sore spot in global international relations. Indeed, the Canada-annexation concept exists only in President Trumps mind. The North American free trade agreements are working just fine, thank you. How much might both China and the United States cut from bloated defense budgets that would allow hundreds of billions of dollars of investments in our crumbling social safety nets. Such monies might go into healthcare resource and research making life better for all. Of course, mitigating climate change is another huge mutual problem. The costs of the current blindman’s bluff over Taiwan are a lunacy the world cannot afford. Instead, let’s see how things look at mid-century.

“War has always been violent blindman’s bluff, played with men’s lives and nations’ resources. But the time for it is over. As the race has outgrown human sacrifice, human slavery, and dueling, it has to outgrow war.” ― Herman Wouk, War and Remembrance

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