South China Sea

Read the two documents attached. Then taking into account the histories, cultures, and economies of China, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia in the area of the South China Sea, propose paths to peace among the close neighbors. As an afterthought suggest how the U.S. might help.

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Paths to Peace in the South China Sea

Drawing on the principles of inventive negotiation and the "trade causes peace" thesis from these documents, here's a framework for reducing tensions among China, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia:

Core Strategy: Build Commercial Interdependence

1. Joint Resource Development Zones

Rather than arguing over sovereignty, establish multilateral exploitation agreements for fishing, oil, and gas resources in disputed areas. The model:

• Create shared revenue streams that all parties lose if conflict erupts
• Use third-party facilitators (perhaps Norwegian or Dutch experts, given the documents' praise for Dutch negotiation skills) to broker initial agreements
• Focus on "pie factory building" rather than "pie splitting" - the question becomes "how do we maximize joint wealth?" not "whose territory is this?"

2. Regional Tourism and Cultural Exchange Initiative

Inspired by the Jerusalem tourism proposal in the peace paper:

• Develop the South China Sea as a regional heritage tourism destination showcasing the interconnected maritime cultures of all four nations
• Create cruise routes connecting historical sites across borders
• Establish cultural centers in each country celebrating shared maritime heritage
• Annual festivals celebrating ASEAN unity with rotating host countries

Economic incentive: Regional tourism could generate billions annually, with each incident of military tension costing each country measurable tourist revenue.

3. Environmental Collaboration Framework

The South China Sea faces serious ecological challenges - overfishing, coral reef destruction, plastic pollution. Create:

• Joint marine protected areas requiring cooperation to enforce
• Shared research stations studying climate change impacts
• Collaborative fishing management reducing both ecological damage and fisheries conflicts
• Green energy projects (offshore wind, tidal) with shared ownership

This creates ongoing relationships requiring regular face-to-face meetings - the kind of personal connections that make conflict "unthinkable" (as the documents note about Taiwan Strait business relationships).

4. Infrastructure Integration

Following the Boeing-Mitsubishi model of former enemies becoming partners:

• Maritime Silk Road 2.0: Joint port development and shipping coordination
• Undersea cable networks for telecommunications co-owned by regional partners
• Shared coast guard training and search-and-rescue operations
• Regional maritime safety standards and enforcement

5. Business Relationship Building

Encourage thousands of joint ventures:

• Chinese capital + Southeast Asian manufacturing/resources
• Technology transfer agreements
• Supply chain integration making disruption economically painful for all
• Sister city relationships focusing on commercial ties

The documents emphasize that 500,000 Taiwanese managers living in Shanghai make cross-strait war "impractical." Similar interdependence needs developing here.

Critical Process Elements (from Inventive Negotiation principles)

Use Professional Facilitators: ASEAN could hire consensus-building experts (like Lawrence Susskind's team mentioned in the documents) to manage multi-party talks. Crucially, let the parties themselves select facilitators they trust.

Leverage Diversity: Include representatives beyond just governments - fishing communities, environmental NGOs, business leaders, Indigenous groups. The Philips MyHeart project succeeded with 33 diverse partners; this can too.

Right Spaces and Pace :

• Avoid formal government conference rooms that reinforce positional bargaining
• Use neutral locations (Singapore has played this role)
• Allow time for relationship building - "sleeping on it" and informal socializing
• Small working groups on specific issues, not just plenary sessions

Manage Emotion :

• Expect and allow for initial venting/complaints
• Take breaks when anger escalates
• Focus on future opportunities, not past grievances
• Avoid public statements that back parties into corners

Address Corruption: Transparency in any joint development projects is essential. Use international auditing and clear benefit-sharing formulas.

The U.S. Role

What the U.S. Should NOT Do:

• Impose trade sanctions (they don't work, per the documents)
• Rely primarily on military presence/threats
• Take sides on sovereignty claims
• Practice containment strategy

What the U.S. Could Do:

1. Economic Carrots, Not Sticks:
• Offer infrastructure investment support for cooperative projects
• Provide technology for joint environmental monitoring
• Fund exchange programs and educational partnerships
• Support ASEAN-led initiatives financially
2. Facilitator Role:
• Offer neutral facilitation services through universities or NGOs
• Share lessons from other successful multi-party negotiations
• Provide technical expertise (marine biology, resource management, etc.)
3. Create Economic Incentives for Peace:
• Preferential trade agreements contingent on regional stability
• Investment guarantees for joint ventures
• Support for regional free trade arrangements
• Technology partnerships requiring peaceful cooperation
4. People-to-People Programs:
• Massively expand student exchanges (remember: 60,000 Chinese students in U.S. universities)
• Business delegation visits in all directions
• Scientific collaboration on shared challenges
5. Stay Patient and Long-term Focused:
• Accept that this takes decades, not months
• Avoid demanding quick diplomatic "wins"
• Measure success by increasing trade volumes, joint ventures, and personal relationships, not by sovereignty agreements

Why This Approach Could Work

The documents provide compelling evidence that:

• Interdependence prevents conflict: "You can't kill someone and trade with him too"
• Face-to-face relationships matter: When people know each other personally, violence becomes unthinkable
• Economic incentives outweigh nationalism: Every military incident has a calculable economic cost
• Trade changes cultures: globally-connected populations value different things than isolated ones
• Walls and embargoes fail: 200+ years of evidence shows coercion doesn't work

The South China Sea disputants are already economically connected through ASEAN and global trade. The task is to deepen those connections specifically around the disputed areas until the cost of conflict becomes unbearable to all parties - and the benefits of cooperation become irresistible.

The goal isn't to resolve sovereignty disputes. It's to make them irrelevant through shared prosperity.

AND?

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And? How to Build Relationships through Inventive Negotiation is available in Chinese or English translations for a free download at:

和？      https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5sx9p9zq

AND? https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7524j2vk

Finally, you can compare the similarities and differences in negotiation behaviors in several cultures and countries quantified in Tables 1, 2, and the Appendix of the article at https://escholarship.org/content/qt6vg5q9fz/qt6vg5q9fz.pdf. Focus on China and the Philippines.